Spatial Discontinuities in Support for Hydraulic Fracturing: Searching for a “Goldilocks Zone”     

Chad Zanocco  Hilary Boudet  Christopher E. Clarke  Peter D. Howe 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(9):1065-1072

Recent research suggests that those located closer to energy development are, on average, more supportive of this development. However, case studies in specific locations reveal additional nuance. In a case study of Bakken Shale residents, Junod et al. identified a “Goldilocks Zone” of unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) acceptance—an area on the periphery of development that is “just right” because residents feel close enough to receive economic benefits but far enough away to avoid negative impacts. We explore whether this Goldilocks Zone extends nationally by combining geocoded public opinion data (N?=?23,154) with UOGD locations. Using multilevel regression modeling, we find that respondents located within 115?km of newly active UOGD are more supportive of hydraulic fracturing while those located within 115–305?km are comparatively less supportive. While we do not uncover a national-level Goldilocks Zone, our work highlights innovative approaches for examining spatial relationships in energy development opinion.  相似文献   

Prediction of categorical spatial data via Bayesian updating     

Xiang Huang  Zhizhong Wang  Jianhua Guo 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(7):1426-1449

This study introduces a transition probability-based Bayesian updating (BU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to provide a spatial categorical variable prediction method which has a solid theoretical foundation and yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional ones. The basic idea is to first build a linear Bayesian updating (LBU) model that corresponds to an application of Bayes’ theorem. Since the linear opinion pool is intrinsically suboptimal and underconfident, the beta-transformed Bayesian updating (BBU) model is proposed to overcome this limitation. Another type of BU approach, conditional independent Bayesian updating (CIBU), is derived based on conditional independent experts. It is shown that traditional Markovian-type categorical prediction (MCP) is equivalent to a particular CIBU model with specific parameters. As three variants of the BU method, these techniques are illustrated in synthetic and real-world case studies, comparison results with both the LBU and MCP favor the BBU model.  相似文献   

螺线管磁定位技术初探          下载免费PDF全文

陈剑垚  岳刚 《探矿工程》2016,43(8):53-57

随着钻探工艺的不断发展,对井身轨迹的要求不断增加。一般依靠地磁定位的仪器已无法满足精度要求,于是研发出了多种近场磁导向系统,如MGT、RMRS和慧磁中靶仪等。以发射源种类为依据,可分为主动测量技术和被动测量技术。螺线管磁定位系统属于主动测量技术,它具有数据传输量小、耐温高等优点。目前国外已经商用化,而国内研究不多。本文简单介绍了螺线管测量的理论模型,着重阐述了室内实验和误差分析。实验共测量了144个点数据,总距离平均误差为4.9%,平面距离平均误差为5.6%,初步验证了螺线管磁定位系统的可行性。  相似文献   

South African eucalypts: Health,trees, and atmospheres in the colonial contact zone     

《Geoforum》2016

In this article I suggest that a reading of previous studies, which cast the early transfers of eucalyptus to South Africa along economic and aesthetic rationales can be enhanced by medical history. Through a case from King William’s Town in the 1870s, I show that the appeal of the eucalyptus hinged on the olfactory aspect of the trees, which were conceived as an important public health factor. I then proceed to outline how a clearer understanding of the role of olfaction in ecological studies can uncover new aspects of social dynamics and human relations to the natural environment. I argue that taking the atmosphere seriously as the medium through which we interact with the world, opens for an understanding of olfaction as an important and largely unexplored ethos that guided the dramatic reshaping of the colonial landscapes during much of the nineteenth century.  相似文献   

Research on Cultural Dimension of Natural Disaster:A Literature Review     

Sun Lei  Su Guiwu 《地球科学进展》2016,31(9):907-918

Culture provides an important perspective to understand society. It is one of the key factors that impact how people behave themselves, interact with one another, view the world; what they believe and value. Therefore, a good understanding of public disaster awareness and disaster coping is impossible without taking their culture context into consideration. Since the 1960s, cultural dimension in disaster issues and/or disaster reduction practices has been attracting increasingly attention; many empirical or theoretical explorations have been reported. This review aims to give an overview of research progresses on how culture impacts public awareness and coping of disasters, and analyze the corresponding implications for disaster research and disaster reduction practice. This review summarizes that: ①There is unanimous consensus on public awareness and coping of disaster, which are affected by their culture context. While the knowledge about the ways and degree of impact is still limited, further research is warranted. In addition, more systematic and in-depth studies conducted from cross-cultural perspectives are needed to design to further explore the origins of variance in public disaster awareness and coping, and to what extent from cultural differences. ②Research on public awareness of disaster, emergency response and recovery indicated that culture might have double-side impacts on disaster management—sometimes cultural factors such as value, norm, custom and belief might lead to people more vulnerable than the others, even could be the root causes, but they could also be the source of people’s resilience to disaster in some cases. How to identify those positive and negative impacts, then develop cultural-oriented disaster management policy is a challenge issue, which need special attention. ③There is an increasing acknowledgement that local knowledge and disaster subculture could play an important role in public disaster coping, while the lacking of the awareness of the value of local knowledge, the change of lifestyle, and the impact from external culture pose a threat to the inheritance of some local, traditional disaster coping strategies. So exploring how to conserve, protect, identify, document them, then combine them with modern science and technology should and will be the focus of relevant studies. On the bases of these summarizations, in terms of cultural dimension of natural disaster research in China, systematic and in-depth studies are needed to explore how Chinese culture affects public disaster awareness and coping, what cultural resources can be used in disaster (risk) reduction and for building and enhancing disaster resilience, and how to use them.  相似文献   

泛在测绘及其在城市交通领域的典型化应用     

王庆国  罗晶  张昆仑  何海琦  刘晨林 《测绘通报》2018,(3):76-79,88

泛在测绘的发展为实时动态采集交通系统状态信息提供了新的技术手段和技术形式。本文在分析泛在测绘基本特征的基础上,从平均行车速度与交通量的估计、交通热点的实时获取,以及交通诱导服务几个方面研究了泛在测绘在城市交通领域的典型化应用。研究表明,泛在测绘的发展能为解决城市交通领域存在的许多问题提供新的方法和技术支持。  相似文献   

Why are carbon taxes unfair? Disentangling public perceptions of fairness     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

In order to reach climate goals, governments need to gain support from their voters for the necessary policy interventions, such as carbon dioxide taxes. Previous research concludes that people often do not support and legitimize such taxes because they perceive them as unfair. However, the notion of fairness implies a multitude of factors and despite attempts of the previous research to further nuance people’s fairness perceptions, we currently lack a more precise understanding of what people mean when they regard carbon taxes as unfair. In this article, we thoroughly investigate this problem by using original survey data from YouGov collected in the United States in 2018 and analyzing open-ended survey responses on why people think carbon taxes are unfair. Applying structural topic modeling, we unpack the multi-dimensional meaning of unfairness, as perceived by the US population. The results from our analysis show that people regard carbon taxes based on gas pricing as unfair because they perceive gas prices already being high, because of the need to drive, unfairness for the poor or rural population, lack of trust in government, or considerations that the purpose of the tax is unjustified. These findings help provide a more nuanced policy design to address fairness concerns related to carbon taxes.  相似文献   

Experience is not enough: A dynamic explanation of the limited adaptation to extreme weather events in public organizations     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

This study advances theory articulating the micro-level processes behind public organization adaptation to extreme weather. It tackles a persistent puzzle about the limited adaptation to extreme weather among public organizations: why does adaptation remain deficit after public organizations have experienced repeated extreme weather and some catastrophic consequences? We develop a computational agent-based model that integrates extant theory and data from semi-structured interviews of U.S. public transit agency managers, and use the model to investigate how micro-level cognition and behavior interact with environmental constraints to facilitate or impede the diffusion of adaptation. We articulate in greater detail how experience with influential extreme weather events matters to adaptation, highlighting that such experience is insufficient for adaptation to occur. A key insight is that the potential benefits from both increased risk perception and additional financial resources stemming from disaster- or non-disaster-induced opportunities can be underutilized, absent effective coupling between heightened risk perception and availability of resources that creates windows for adaptation. Using this insight, we further identify managerial and policy interventions with maximum leverage to promote adaptation to extreme weather in public organizations. The experiments show that slowing risk perception decay and synchronizing opportunities with extreme weather occurrences can stimulate adaptation.  相似文献   

The role and limits of strategic framing for promoting sustainable consumption and policy     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Strategic issue framing is widely regarded as an effective communication strategy to alter public opinion and citizens’ policy support. However, it is unclear to what extent strategic framing can increase support for ambitious demand-side actions and policies that make the cost of mitigation perceptible in citizens’ everyday lives. Taking an exploratory approach, we conducted qualitative interviews and a comparative framing experiment with 9,750 survey respondents from China, Germany, and the United States. We analyzed strategic issue framing effects in two areas known to be key for increasing the sustainability of consumption: meat/fish consumption, and fossil-fuel car usage. Employing both classical linear regressions and advanced Bayesian sparse estimations, we show that in all three countries widespread arguments in favor of reduced meat/fish consumption and car use are unlikely to substantially alter citizens’ concern, willingness to pay, behavioral intentions and policy support for demand-side action. Our findings suggest that in the absence of a broader behavioral change campaign, strategic issue framing alone is unlikely to be effective in changing entrenched attitudes and behaviors. On its own, it is also unlikely to substantially increase public support for demand-side policies to reduce consumption. More careful research is needed to help policymakers understand the role and limits of different strategic framing techniques.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity     

M. Semih Yücemen 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(3):201-226

Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.  相似文献